As the delta wave continues to surge steeply upward some optimistic public experts project that US will see the rapid downturn in attack rate noted in England It is nice to think so but...
The US differs from England in at least the following ways:
1.England gave their second dose later than in the US perhaps giving the vaccinated a higher antibody level when Delta landed onshore
2. Some or many Brits continued to wear masks even after the controls were lifted.Arguably to a higher degree than in US.
3) England did not have powerful elected regional leaders actively opposing mask wearing as governors of several states in the US are now doing.
Dr Eric Topol is critical of the CDC current performance. First CDC was premature in their announcement in May that masks were no longer necesary for the fully vaccinated. The next mistake, in his view and in that of Dr. Leana Wen was to discontinued surveillance of breakthrough cases that were not serious enough to require hospitalization. Further according to Topol they should be doing genomic analysis on breakthrough cases and studying their antibody levels and noting when and what kind of vaccine they received. Basically Topol is saying we are flying blind regarding the delta surge.Additionally CDC is admixing breakthrough case numbers from the pre delta times frame with those of the post delta period giving a falsely optimistic estimate of the fatality rate which in turn tends to negate the impact of their "wear mask again" advice.
From my admittedly limited personal experience in Texas people just do not seem to be taking the surge seriously. This should not be surprising One elderly family friend eats out serval times a week and is now to attend a mini high school reunion Another elderly couple is planning a family union. A large local church is still living by the May CDC recommendations ignoring the most recent CDC advice as well as a recommendations by the county commissioner.Looking over the crowds at the Astros game, only a few masks are seen. Local authorities have been forbidden by executive order to issue mask mandates even though delta is clearly more contagious and arguably more virulent than the version of covid dominant in earlier surges.