Based on three factors they predicted there will be a winter surge but, of course its magnitude is unknown.
The factors are : 1) seasonality 2) waning vaccination immunity 3)less caution by the public,We think we know the direction of these vectors but what about their magnitudes?
As time goes on not only vaccine immunity will fade but so will the immunity of previous covid 19 infection both of which seem to fade in about six months. Countering that direction is the number of people receiving the booster shots.Countering that is the relentless barage from right wing media claiming that the vaccines are either dangerous or worthless.
Meanwhile in France and Germany a new surge seems underway and travel restrictions to to the US have been lifted. What could possibly go wrong?
Dr. Michael Osterholm is quoted: "Any effort to predict future course beyond 30 days relies on pixie dust for its basis" and we all remember what Yogi said about predictions particularly for the future.