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Friday, May 12, 2023

Covid 19 2022 101 -the basics

Three  basics emerge as we enter year three of a pandemic that has claimed 900.000 lives in the United States"
 Covid 19 is a respiratory virus that spreads by aerosols and there is asymptomatic spread as well as symptomatic spread and a significant amount oif the spread is from high spread events aa super spreader events 

1) Effective Masks prevent infection (N 95 or equivalent )
2)Vaccines prevent serious disease and death to a large degree but vaccines do not prevent infection.
3)vaccine effectiveness wanes over a period of months and booster are required as does immunity acquired by infection 

Corollaries. Vaccines do not prevent infection. To the extent masks prevent spread of infection they will naturally prevent death and serious illnesses. Mask effectiveness does not wane.

The protection afforded by vaccines and by contracting covid 19 wanes over time. Boosters are necessary.

Unless and until a vaccine that prevents infection is developed the human experience with covid will depend on the mutations that occur with covid and the development and availability  of safe and effective treatments given promptly after a rapid diagnosis. If covid mutates to a gentler affliction no more than a bad cold or mild to moderate severe flu,,, great.  But If the mutation history of covid continues as it has so far , we are not through with covid no matter how much folks pretend that is the case. Mutations will continue , infection and  surges will continue and boosters will be needed. Mutations may arise as they have so far that have varying degrees of  vaccine escape and varying degrees of virulence. 

The polio vaccine prevented infection by blocking GI tract mucosal invasions and until humans develop a vaccine that protects against covid invading the nasal mucosa or develop a vaccine that is effective against all corona viruses we are not going to say that we are through with covid.

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